What are the determinants of the perception of insecurity in neighborhoods and cities in the Northeast?

Abstract

The increase in the number of crimes occurring in large urban centers and neighborhoods has made the population feel increasingly insecure. Therefore, this article aims to investigate the determinants of the perception of insecurity in the Northeast region of Brazil, based on socioeconomic, location, and risk-related factors. To this end, data from the Supplementary Survey on the Perception of Security of the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNADC), conducted in 2021, were used through the estimation of a generalized ordered logit model. The results indicate that gender, education, exposure to crime, the presence of homeless people, drug use and sales, robberies, vacant lots, and recreational areas are associated with the perception of insecurity, with effects varying according to the territorial scale and level of insecurity. Differences among Northeastern states were also identified, even after controlling for individual, household, location, and risk characteristics. The non-proportional effects demonstrate that the determinants do not operate uniformly across the different levels of the scale, reinforcing the importance of the generalized ordered logit model. Thus, insecurity is characterized as a multidimensional and territorially differentiated phenomenon.

Keywords: insecurity; vulnerability; criminality urban.